A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
