Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
