Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new official figures. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that murder figures could fail to indicate better national stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it may hide days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still beset by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.