Daily Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean number of per-day homicides per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that murder data could fail to point to enhanced national security.

Significant Drop in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen during these months is extremely important,” the President remarked, adding that in November the smallest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

But, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for assessing the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it may hide periods when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.